(Plan/Method) Theme b.Risk assessment of the domestic establishment of Chinese mitten crab using a simultaneous species distribution model for estimating multiple species (Kenji Yokota) theme c.Application to local scale resource assessment and management using spatio-temporal distribution modeling (Shigehide Iwata) Chinese mitten crabs are threatened as invasive alien species in Japan like alien crayfish.The purpose is to assess the domestic colonization risk of this species, focusing on the communities that serve as food.By applying the jointSpeciesDistributionModel (jSDM), which is based on the distribution database of organisms around the world, we will work on the risk assessment of domestic settlement from the perspective of the ecosystem system. (Planning and method) The Species Distribution Model (SDM) is a method for statistically clarifying the relationship between habitats and native areas, invaded/settled areas, and non-invaded areas.So far, we have applied SDM to this species and evaluated the domestic establishment risk from the environmental conditions.However, SDM was unable to incorporate the interspecies interaction that regulates the distribution of organisms, because the model was constructed using only one species.From the beginning, jSDM, which can estimate multiple distributions simultaneously, had a large computational load.However, recent method developments and package offerings have alleviated this problem and made it possible to run on a PC.Therefore, from a bird's-eye view, we will try to estimate the colonization risk of Chinese mitten crab using jSDM as a tool for predicting the expansion of the distribution of alien species through the interaction between the environment and the biological community. (Results and Future Prospects) SDM revealed differences between the native environment and the invasion/settlement environment of Chinese mitten crab.On the other hand, it has been reported from the results of genetic analysis that the Japanese mitten crab, a closely related species native to Japan, has also been introduced overseas. The influence of evolution has also become an important issue.Since there are no reports of areas where both species coexist, including Japan, appropriate evaluation cannot be made for analysis by jSDM.However, it is necessary to collect and analyze information on the future establishment status at any time.Regarding the simultaneous estimation of Chinese mitten crab and prey or predator organisms, we are considering selecting more relevant environmental data because the distribution area is wide and there is a large difference in species composition between the native area and the invading area. .Organize species selection and environmental information, conduct simultaneous estimation with jSDM, and estimate future changes in environmental conditions as an ecological community and biocommunity composition in the invasion area.As a further developmental effort, in the future, we will not only obtain information on the distribution of species, but also capture the characteristics of genetic changes within species accompanying movement and diffusion to make highly accurate predictions.The purpose is to develop a method for estimating the density of fishery resources in fishing grounds using spatio-temporal distribution modeling and to present the catch potential to achieve sustainable fishing, and to build a platform that can provide the results to small-scale fishermen. do.In this fiscal year, we will collect information on how to efficiently collect open source fishing effort and how to use catches, and consider building a collection system.Regarding the resource assessment part, how to present results that contribute to local resource assessment and management based on the fisheries information borrowed from the joint research institution of the person in charge of the issue, and what kind of results should be presented. Whether it is good or not, the method will be examined. (Results and Future Prospects) We examined methods of collecting open source data using scraping technology.However, we concluded that it would be more efficient to efficiently collect data from the acquired documents than to build a system because of the burden on the information provider and the limited targets in this research.In addition, we estimated the catch amount for each space from the fisheries information borrowed from the joint research institute.However, it was determined that sufficient accuracy was not yet obtained from the results.As a future issue, it is necessary to consider efficient information collection and organization technology by utilizing existing software for the former.Regarding the latter, it is necessary to develop and study methods to improve accuracy. 1.Acquisition of marine big data and promotion of AI analysis research (XNUMX) Development of a fishery integrated support system that realizes resilient and sustainable fisheries using marine organism big data and training of marine AI human resources
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